A Fund managed by Swiss Life Asset Managers UK Limited

Shutterstock 1063994879
Decarbonising the real estate sector: entering the decade of implementation

In this series of blogs, Christi Vosloo explores the pathway and subsequent challenges to achieving net zero carbon in real estate.
Insights banner

The Return of Inflation: A Conundrum?

21 June 2021

 

The Return of Inflation: A Conundrum?

 

As with millions of other bank account holders, I have recently received correspondence from my bank warning over the prospect of negative interest rates. In effect, banks wish to charge me for holding cash on deposit. At a time when inflation has risen to 2.1% in the UK (higher than expected in May) and 5% in the US, the timing of this bank correspondence might appear rather strange.

 

Global equity and bond markets are priced on the expectation that this rising inflation is transitory as opposed to persistent as a result of factors such as the base effect from 12 months ago and increased oil and other commodity prices. Amid the rebound in the economy, labour shortages and wage rises are being widely reported in the economy with 881,000 recorded vacancies in May. Meanwhile, the UK government’s furlough scheme has been extended until the end of September. This scheme in itself is creating labour shortages as employees remain on company payrolls thereby supressing what otherwise would be a higher unemployment rate. With a continuing output gap, the outlook for inflation won’t be known for another 6 months as the economy recovers in the post pandemic, vaccinated world.

 

The 10 year gilt in the UK currently delivers a gross redemption yield of 0.76%. In the US it is 1.5%, counter intuitively having hardened of late (it peaked in February) in the face of rising costs.  In Europe, Italy is the only country with positive 5 year borrowing costs. Even Greece now has negative rates.

 

Central bankers across the western world do not  wish to see a tightening of financial conditions. The Federal Reserve looks set to continue its £120 billion of monthly bond purchases but has brought forward the date of expected interest rates to 2023 from 2024. They clearly wish to avoid a repeat of the ‘taper tantrum’ which followed the GFC and led to volatility in markets.

 

As with equity and bond investors, the interest rate and inflation outlook are fundamental also to property investors. At Mayfair Capital, we continue to monitor these variables closely. However, over time, property returns are more correlated with GDP growth than inflation. In the past, higher interest rates have derailed the property sector but the market remains lowly leveraged with plenty of caution evident with lenders and so the risks do not seem high at this point. More of a risk is an unexpected rise in the risk free rate but this does not seem probable given policy makers’ actions and inflation being given the benefit of the doubt in terms of its longevity.

 

With a UK Base rate of only 0.1% it is tempting to think that the next move will be upward but my bank still feels the need to warn of a move to negative rates. Let’s hope this caution is misplaced.

 

James Thornton - Non-Executive Chairman

 

James Thornton
James Thornton
Non-Executive Chairman
James Thornton
James Thornton
Non-Executive Chairman
T: +44 20 7495 1929

James co-founded Mayfair Capital (now Swiss Life Asset Managers UK) in 2002 which was acquired by Swiss Life Asset Managers in 2016. He became Chief Executive in April 2014 having previously performed the role of Chief Investment Officer and became Non-Executive Chairman in 2021.

James was Fund Director for Swiss Life Asset Managers UK's flagship Fund, the Property Income Trust for Charities until 2021. He is also Chair of the Charity Investors’ Group which is committed to education for charity trustees and their advisers.

James has over 35 years’ experience in UK commercial property. He spent the first 15 years of his career at Jones Lang Wootton (now JLL), 11 of which were in its investment management division. In 1996, James joined Savills, where he was appointed Director of Fund Management, a role he performed for 6 years. James is FCA authorised and is a member of the RICS and the Investment Property Forum.

Get in touch                                            

Please contact James Lloyd, Georgina Lockwood or Charlotte Cook

Contact us

james-lloyd.jpg
James Lloyd
Head of Charities and Endowments
Send email
georgie-morley-1.jpg
Georgina Lockwood
Sales Team Assistant
Send email
charlotte-cook-002.jpg
Charlotte Cook
Investment Associate, Charities and Endowments
Send email

The value of investments may go down as well as up, and investors may not get back all or any amount originally invested. Income or other returns from investments are subject to change and may be lower than estimated. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Property Income Trust for Charities

A Fund managed by Swiss Life Asset Managers UK Limited

Terms & Conditions

This website is not suitable for retail clients

Information on this Site

The information on this site is issued by Swiss Life Asset Managers UK Limited ("Swiss Life Asset Managers UK"), a company incorporated in England and Wales under number 04846209, authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority ("FCA") with FRN 229228 and its registered office is at 55 Wells Street, London, W1T 3PT.  Swiss Life Asset Managers UK is a member of Swiss Life Asset Managers.

The Property Income Trust for Charities (“PITCH”) is a pooled property vehicle, in the form of a UK exempt unauthorised unit trust, which is managed by Swiss Life Asset Managers UK.

The following terms and conditions apply to the use of this site. By using this site, you consent to these terms and conditions and the privacy policy and cookies policy available on this site. If you do not accept these terms and conditions, privacy policy and cookies policy, you must not use this site.

Sales Restrictions

PITCH is not a recognised collective investment scheme for the purposes of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 of the United Kingdom (the "Act"). The promotion and the distribution of offering materials in relation to PITCH in the United Kingdom is accordingly restricted by law.

PITCH is categorised by the FCA as a Non-Mainstream Pooled Investment which cannot be marketed to the general public.  PITCH is only available to charities who qualify under section 96 or 100 of the Charities Act (2011) or section 25 of the Charities Act (Northern Ireland) 1964 (“Eligible Charity”).

PITCH is not regulated under the UK's financial services regulations and investors will not benefit from the rules and regulations made under the Act for the protection of investors as would apply to authorised schemes, or from the Financial Services Compensation Scheme.

The information on this site is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to subscribe for units in PITCH.  The information on this site does not constitute a recommendation or investment advice and should not be relied upon. Should you have any queries about PITCH, you should contact your financial adviser.

Risk Factors

The value of investments may go down as well as up, and investors may not get back all or any amount originally invested. Income or other returns from investments are subject to change and may be lower than estimated. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

PITCH invests in real property in the UK and uses leverage which means the fund may be subject to higher risk and volatility than other funds and may not be suitable for all Eligible Charity investors.  Further, PITCH’s portfolio of assets may lack diversification thereby increasing the risk of loss.

The levels and bases of and reliefs from taxation may change. Any tax reliefs referred to are those currently available and their value depends on the circumstances of the individual investor. Investors should consult their own tax adviser in order to understand any applicable tax consequences.

Accuracy of Information

Information on this site (including any expression of opinion or forecast) has been obtained from, or is based on, sources believed by Swiss Life Asset Managers UK to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness and should not be relied upon. The information is provided without obligation on the part of Swiss Life Asset Managers UK and on the understanding that any person who acts upon it or changes their investment position in reliance on it does so entirely at their own risk.

Information is current only as at the date it is first posted and may no longer be true or complete when viewed by you. All information may be changed or amended without prior notice although Swiss Life Asset Managers UK does not undertake to update this site regularly. Swiss Life Asset Managers UK shall not be obliged to remove any outdated information from the website or to expressly mark it as being outdated.

No Liability

Whilst reasonable steps have been taken to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information on this site, no representation, warranty or undertaking is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information by Swiss Life Asset Managers UK or any of its associated companies and no liability is accepted by such persons for the accuracy or completeness of such information. In no event will Swiss Life Asset Managers UK or any of its associated companies be liable to any person for any direct, indirect, special or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information, or on any other hyper-linked site, including, without limitation, any lost profits, business interruption, loss of programs or data on your equipment, or otherwise, even if Swiss Life Asset Managers UK is expressly advised of the possibility or likelihood of such damages. This does not exclude or restrict any duty or liability that Swiss Life Asset Managers UK has to its customers under the regulatory system in the United Kingdom.

You should be aware that the internet is not a completely reliable transmission medium and access to and use of this website is at your own risk. Swiss Life Asset Managers UK does not accept any liability for any data transmission errors such as data loss or damage or alteration of any kind, including, but not limited to any direct, indirect or consequential damage, arising out of the use of the products or services referred to herein. Furthermore, we accept no liability in respect of losses or damages arising out of changes made to the content of the website by unauthorised third parties. This does not exclude or restrict any duty or liability that Swiss Life Asset Managers UK has to its customers under the regulatory system in the United Kingdom.

Indemnity

You agree to indemnify, defend, and hold harmless Swiss Life Asset Managers UK and its directors, officers, employees, agents, licensors and affiliates from and against any and all claims, liabilities, damages, losses, or expenses, including legal fees and costs, arising out of or in any way connected with your access to or use of this website and the information.

Copyright, Trademarks and Other Rights

Copyright, trademarks, database rights, patents and all similar rights in this site and the information contained in it are owned by Swiss Life Asset Managers UK, its licensors or relevant third party providers. You may use the information and reproduce it in hard copy for your personal reference only. The information may not otherwise be reproduced, distributed, stored or transmitted without Swiss Life Asset Managers UK’s written consent. Nothing on this site should be considered as granting any licence or right under any trademark of Swiss Life Asset Managers UK or any third party.

Internet e-mail

Messages sent over the internet cannot be guaranteed to be completely secure. They could be intercepted, lost or possibly altered. Swiss Life Assset Managers UK cannot and will not take responsibility for this, and will not be liable to you or anyone else for any damages or otherwise, in connection with any message sent, either by you to Swiss Life Asset Managers UK, or by Swiss Life Asset Managers UK to you, over the Internet.

Linked Websites

This site may be linked to third party websites or contain information provided by third parties. These links are provided only as a convenience. Swiss Life Asset Managers UK does not make any representation as to the accuracy or completeness of such websites or information, has not and will not review or update such websites or information. You acknowledge and agree that, as you have chosen to enter the linked website, use made of such websites or information is at your own risk. Swiss Life Asset Managers UK does not accept any liability arising out of the information contained on any linked website or information provided by a third party and the use of such sites and information is at your own risk. This does not exclude or restrict any duty or liability that Swiss Life Asset Managers UK has to its customers under the regulatory system in the United Kingdom. You should also be aware that the terms and conditions of such website and the website's statement relating to the collection and use of your personal information may be different from those applicable to your use of this website.

Governing Law

You agree that your use of this site and any dispute arising from the use of this site is subject to English law and you submit to the jurisdiction of the English courts.

Accept
Decline